Scene-setting: why is there likely to be increasing conflicts over transboundary resources?

Climate change: It is perhaps no surprise that climate change will make it onto this list. Whilst the impacts of climate change on Africa remains relatively uncertain, it is more than likely that it will have some impact on water resources in the continent. For instance de Wit and Stankiewicz (2006) predicted that climate change is likely to lead to fall in precipitation in Northern and Southern Africa whilst increasing rainfall in East Africa in particular. Indeed the latest IPCC report (2013) has also predicted a precipitation pattern where the wet gets wetter and the dry gets drier with the notable exceptions of Northeast Brazil and East Africa. Whilst there is still considerable uncertainty surrounding such predictions, the possibility of such dramatic changes when coupled with the lack of institutional capability for the majority of African government to deal with these changes is likely to lead to increased conflict over transboundary water resources.

Population growth: Africa is the fastest growing continent in the world in terms of population. The population of sub-Saharan Africa has over tripled between 1950 and 2000 and is expected to double once more by 2060 (World Bank, 2015). This rapid population growth is expected to the cause considerable pressure on food and water in Africa. This pressure is likely to force countries to use available water resources more efficiently and in some cases the demand for water might exceed the supply (Falkenmark, 1990). This need to use all or the majority of available water resources may be a source of international conflict between nations along a river system as an increased extraction of freshwater from nations upstream will directly affect the water available to downstream nations.

However, questions are being raised about to what extent is there a case of water scarcity per se. As Rijsberman (2006) noted, water scarcity may not mean what the general public thinks it means. Whilst many might conceptualise water scarcity as the lack of water to support domestic purposes, this is often not the case: the water need for domestic purposes is actually quite small in comparison to other usages. As such, becoming water scarce as defined by the Falkenmark index is not an indication of a lack of water for drinking and cleaning, but of a lack of water for food production. This therefore raises a question: if water scarcity is more of a problem to do with food production, would importing cheap food from other nations be a viable way of solving conflicts over the usage of transboundary resources in water scarce regions?

Predictions of water scarcity are also questioned due to the way water scarcity is measured. Much of the statistics on water scarcity only calculates blue water (water in rivers, lakes and aquifers) and doesn't take into account green water, which accounts for about 60% of global food production (Savenjie, 2000). As such, a calculation that includes green water is likely to show a much more positive scenario.

In conclusion, whilst there will unquestionably be a higher demand for water resources in the future, the situation might not be as bleak as it seems and there is a good chance that conflicts over transboundary water resources may not happen.